← All calculators

Lump Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging

You have cash to invest. All at once, or spread over months? 2,000 simulated markets weigh the odds.

The money

Uninvested DCA money sits in a money market earning this.

Market assumptions

~15% is typical for a broad stock index; higher volatility makes DCA's downside protection matter more.

Lump sum wins
share of simulated markets
Median outcome
Bad market (10th pct)
Great market (90th pct)

Distribution of outcomes

Lump sum Dollar-cost averaging

Histogram of portfolio values at the horizon across 2,000 simulated markets (same markets for both strategies).

About this calculator

This calculator compares investing a lump sum immediately against dollar-cost averaging it in over several months. It runs thousands of simulated market paths to show how often each approach comes out ahead and by how much.

How it works

The calculator runs thousands of randomized market paths and, on each, compares investing your cash all at once against spreading it over several months. It reports how often each approach wins and the distribution of outcomes, including the downside protection averaging buys. Lump sum wins on average because markets rise more often than they fall, but averaging in narrows the range of bad outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

Is lump-sum or dollar-cost averaging better?

Historically, investing a lump sum immediately beats spreading it out most of the time, because markets rise more often than they fall.

Why does lump sum usually win?

Money invested sooner spends more time in the market compounding. Averaging in keeps part of your cash on the sidelines, where it tends to lag.

When does dollar-cost averaging make sense?

When the emotional cost of a bad first day would scare you out of investing at all. Averaging in reduces regret risk even if it lowers expected return slightly.

Is it better to invest a lump sum or dollar-cost average?

Historically, investing a lump sum immediately beats averaging in about two-thirds of the time, because money in the market sooner compounds longer. Averaging trades a bit of expected return for lower regret risk.

When does dollar-cost averaging make sense?

When investing everything at once would tempt you to panic-sell after a bad start. Averaging in reduces the worst-case outcomes and can keep a nervous investor in the market.

Related calculators

More retirement & investing tools: Retirement Savings Planner · Compound Interest · 401(k) & Employer Match · Roth vs. Traditional · FIRE: Years to Independence · Coast FIRE · Where Can I Retire? · Social Security Break-Even · Net Worth · Savings Goal · Required Minimum Distribution · Dividend Income · College Savings

See them all on the Retirement & Investing Calculators page, or embed this calculator on your site →