← All calculators

Lump Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging

You have cash to invest. All at once, or spread over months? 2,000 simulated markets weigh the odds.

The money

Uninvested DCA money sits in a money market earning this.

Market assumptions

~15% is typical for a broad stock index; higher volatility makes DCA's downside protection matter more.

Lump sum wins
share of simulated markets
Median outcome
Bad market (10th pct)
Great market (90th pct)

Distribution of outcomes

Lump sum Dollar-cost averaging

Histogram of portfolio values at the horizon across 2,000 simulated markets (same markets for both strategies).

About this calculator

This calculator compares investing a lump sum immediately against dollar-cost averaging it in over several months. It runs thousands of simulated market paths to show how often each approach comes out ahead and by how much.

Frequently asked questions

Is lump-sum or dollar-cost averaging better?

Historically, investing a lump sum immediately beats spreading it out most of the time, because markets rise more often than they fall.

Why does lump sum usually win?

Money invested sooner spends more time in the market compounding. Averaging in keeps part of your cash on the sidelines, where it tends to lag.

When does dollar-cost averaging make sense?

When the emotional cost of a bad first day would scare you out of investing at all. Averaging in reduces regret risk even if it lowers expected return slightly.